Oversupply of semiconductors resolved after autumn 2023


Release time:

2023-02-16

The oversupply of semiconductors is long-lasting. In addition to consumer-facing electronics such as smartphones and personal computers, data center investment by IT giants is also decelerating. Centering on cutting-edge semiconductors, demand is declining. It is expected that the balance between supply and demand will not be achieved until after the fall of 2023. However, semiconductors in areas such as pure electric vehicles (EV) for demand growth remain in short supply, and supply constraints continue.

Oversupply of semiconductors resolved after autumn 2023

The oversupply of semiconductors is long-lasting. In addition to consumer-facing electronics such as smartphones and personal computers, data center investment by IT giants is also decelerating. Centering on cutting-edge semiconductors, demand is declining. It is expected that the balance between supply and demand will not be achieved until after the fall of 2023. However, semiconductors in areas such as pure electric vehicles (EV) for demand growth remain in short supply, and supply constraints continue.

"We are experiencing the most serious imbalance between supply and demand in the past 13 years," Sanjoy Morotya, CEO of Micron Technology, said at the financial report conference on December 21, 2022. The oversupply has also led to a decline in sales prices. From September to November 2022, Micron Technology's operating income will decrease by 47% compared with the same period of the previous year.

Due to impacts such as a sharp drop in demand for smartphones, memory used for data storage, etc. will quickly turn into an oversupply from the second half of 2022. Regarding how long it will take to restore the balance between supply and demand, Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Chinese version: Nikkei Chinese Network) consulted experts such as professional trading houses, research companies and analysts. Respondents were commissioned to evaluate on five levels ranging from oversupply to shortage, and a heat map was drawn based on a total of 10 responses.

Semiconductors for smartphones and personal computers will become oversupplied by July to September 2022. Despite the gradual progress in the suppression of semiconductor supply and inventory digestion, the restoration of supply and demand balance for semiconductors for smartphones is expected to wait until October to December 2023, and for semiconductors for personal computers until July to September 2023. Affected by the slowdown in advertising revenue, Chinese and American IT giants are reducing investment, and the demand for semiconductors for data centers is slowing down. It is expected to tend to oversupply before January to March 2023.

It takes months to manufacture semiconductors, and what affects supply now is production in mid-2022. In addition to adjusting supply by increasing their own inventory, Micron Technology and KIOXIA Corporation have initiated large-scale production cuts since October, but the reduction in supply has not kept up with the decline in demand.

 

不仅是存储器,供应链拥有的半导体库存正在膨胀。日本半导体商社协会(位于东京涩谷区)12月对会员企业实施的调查显示,库存“过剩”减掉“不足”的景气判断指数(DI)为+64,相比9月调查向过剩偏向了38个百分点。用半导体生产最终产品的企业的库存水平也很高。台积电(TSMC)CEO魏哲家10月底表示,客户的去库存或将持续至2023年上半年。

形成对照的是,面向汽车和工业的半导体仍然供不应求。虽然以较短交货期获得的零部件增加,但半导体商社CoreStaff表示,“半导体和电子零部件只要有1种采购不到,就无法生产,其他零部件只能变为库存”。以采用老旧生产技术的半导体零部件为中心,仍处于难以采购到足够数量的状况。尤其是汽车用半导体,预计2023年内维持供应短缺。除了汽车厂商挽回生产之外,每辆车的半导体使用量增加也在推高需求。汽油车的半导体使用金额为每辆平均500美元左右,而纯电动汽车(EV)达到1600美元左右。

在汽车半导体需求呈现增加态势的背景下,用于电流控制的功率半导体、用于电源管理等的模拟半导体的“设备投资也较少,供应或难以迅速增加”(大型商社Macnica Holdings)。两者均将在2023年内维持供应短缺。美国半导体贸易商Source Engine汇总的数据显示,功率半导体的交货期从5月底的31~51周延长至11月的39~64周。

丰田和本田受到半导体短缺影响,12月的产量比此前计划下降,同时2023年1月将在日本国内工厂等一部分工厂调整开工率。有限的半导体产品成为瓶颈,波士顿咨询公司(BCG)的小柴优一表示,“汽车生产的下行压力将持续”。汽车巨头中有声音表示,“零部件供应恢复正常要等到2024年”。

如果世界经济的减速迹象加强,消化库存所需的时间也将延长,半导体行情面临的逆风进一步加强的风险正在出现。世界半导体厂商正在相继扩大产能,恢复供需平衡的时间有可能推迟。

Thanks to the support of the governments of various countries and regions, in 2024 in the United States, new factories of Intel and TSMC will be put into operation. Micron Technology and others have also announced large-scale investment plans. While investments betting on long-term demand growth are integral, capacity will be added rapidly. If production capacity increases faster than demand recovery, there may be a further oversupply centered on cutting-edge products.